When Krueger, Waldman and I all got together recently in Kansas City to discuss what makes a fantasy football information website, great, there was a bit of a dissenting opinion on the need for specially tailored keeper and dynasty league information.

Fantasy Football: "It ain't brain surgery."

My immediate response was, "What's the big deal? Take everything we already do for redraft leagues, and bump up the younger players with upside, and bump down the older players whose upside is in the rearviewmirror of their careers." I may have even used the phrase, "It ain't brain surgery." While I expected to see some head nods and perhaps an, "uh huh", indicating a shared level of acceptance of my view, it didn't happen. Instead I got, "well, I think it is important" (Waldman) and, "I get a lot of emails asking for dynasty rankings" (Krueger).

Okay, well, its not like I haven't been wrong before. Since that day though, I've been thinking about why we did have a difference of opinion, and I think I may have pinpointed it. Philosophy. People who play in dynasty leagues have a different philosophy as to how to manage their teams.

Some people take a short view with their teams, playing to win sooner than later, not afraid to pick up seasoned veterans or trade valuable draft picks. Most people take a long view (too many, and too long in my humble opinion - more on this later). These people jettison all players off their roster who are even remotely close to 30 years old, horde draft picks and are preparing to setup their team to become a true dynasty of 3 or more dominating seasons winning consecutive championship titles a la the historical '70s Steelers, '80s 49ers and '90s Cowboys.

My philosophy, as you probably guessed, is very short. That isn't to say I completely ignore the future, but I rarely sacrifice the current very much for a wishful big windfall in the future. With a short view, redraft information is not that different to me when applied to dynasty leagues, which goes back to the original point. "We have redraft info., there is no need for separate keeper / dynasty info., waste of time, yada, yada, yada."

Now, why do I think there are too many long viewers? I guess I've seen so many examples where an owner makes large short term sacrifices but doesn't get the expected payoff 2 to 3 years down the line (i.e. the perpetual rebuild), that I can only reason if some of those guys took a short view instead, they would have enjoyed much more fantasy success. Here's a great quote I stumbled on from David Yudkin of Footballguys: "You can only win the year you are playing in." Amen.

Keep in mind though, I'm not advocating cashing in your entire account of future draft picks so you can have the pleasure of holding retirement parties for Brett Favre, Curtis Martin and Rod Smith, as they fade off into the sun wearing your fantasy team's jersery. What we need, is balance. However, I am pressing the balance to align more with my short view because too often the long view is what is at the forefront of a dynasty player's mind, which ends up clouding their decision making.

Some of the keywords I've thrown out so far in this discussion are philosophy, short vs. long view, balance and perpetual rebuild. Okay, the last one wasn't really key, but I like the ring to it. Feel free to use it in some trash talk to put down your league's consistent basement dwellers. "Waldman, just trade me Larry Fitzgerald because you're now entering Year 4 of your 2 year (perpetual) rebuilding plan, and we both want Larry to feel what its like to play for a winner, right?." ;)

Anyway... now it is time for the most important word in fantasy football: Value. In the long-run, you win at fantasy football because you get good value from your players. You lose because you get poor value. That's pretty simple to grasp. Value in fantasy football is measured by the player's stat production, which translates directly to fantasy points, relative to the cost, and cost can be draft picks, players given up in trade or auction dollars. Whatever you had to give up to acquire the stat production received is the cost.

The reason a long view, in my opinion, has less success than a short view, is because long viewers are not getting good value managing their team. It isn't that they are any less smart than the rest of us. In fact, there are a lot of long viewers who probably have more pure football savvy than short viewers, being they watch a lot of college football, scout the draft like madmen, and have a good knack for finding future fantasy gems while the masses are still pan mining the ore.

It isn't that these long viewers aren't good at finding decent stat production, keeping in mind that no one is perfect projecting future performances of millionaire or soon-to-be millionaire athletes, but the problem is these players end up costing too much. Remember value is a two variable equation (maybe three if we factor in risk). It doesn't matter if you think Reggie Bush is capable of performing at a level equal to LaDainian Tomlinson. If you pay LaDainian Tomlinson to get him, then you screwed up. There is little room to earn positive value on that transaction, but the downside is very much a reality.

In dynasty leagues, young players and rookie draft picks are almost universally overvalued. Veteran players are almost universally undervalued. I think most fantasy players know this, but what we know and what action we take with this knowledge doesn't always jive. Here are some interesting points, theories, etc. which I've thought about to support why I think a short view is a more successful proposition than a long view in a dynasty league:

1. There are more long viewers. Simple economic supply and demand indicates if there are more long viewers, then there is more demand for the hot rookie prospects, draft picks and young players, even if they haven't proven much of anything yet, which drives up the price to acquire them. The inverse is true of veteran players. The magic number seems to be the age of 30 where people get scared of having these guys on their team waiting for the dreaded and inevitable drop-off. Much less demand allows these guys to be had pretty cheap a lot of the time. I think since I've matured to the ripe old age of 33, I now give the 30 year olds more benefits of the doubt, which has worked out nicely. See: Muhsin Muhammad ('04), Joey Galloway ('05) and Rod Smith ('04 and '05)

2. Properly accounting for risk. Another important concept, everyone wants to hit the jackpot in the lottery. A dynasty rookie draft can be akin to playing the lottery. Everyone wants to turn their draft pick into the next LaDainian Tomlinson, and you can't win the jackpot unless you buy a ticket (i.e. own the draft picks). Certainly at this stage a Joey Galloway is never going to become as valuable as a LaDainian Tomlinson level of player, but how likely is it that your draft pick(s) are going to turn into an LT? Not very. You could just as easily end up with Cedric Benson or J.J. Arrington from last year, who didn't help a lick with your team's '05 win total.

People are overly optimistic about their own draft picks, much like fantasy owners overvalue their own players. Trading those picks looks like a much more positive expected value proposition when you realize your own personal rookie draft pick accuracy % hovers around 50%, instead of a perceived 80-90%.

3. Expecting the unexpected. One of my favorite things that gives me a great laugh from people discussing fantasy football is when they say something to the effect, "I have Player X in my dynasty league. I've got that position sewn up with a stud for the next 10 years!" HA HA HA HA! Why am I laughing? If you've played fantasy football long enough you know to expect the unexpected. Any person who makes such a statement is unwisely not expecting the unexpected, and rather thinks Player X is going to carry on with back-to-back-to-back-to-back..., etc. top of the league fantasy seasons. Obviously they've never had players who blew out a knee, got suspended, got thrown in jail, got in trouble with drugs, drinking, guns or women, had a serious attitude problem, reneged on their contract for more money, were lazy, or just quit.

Does anything surprise me anymore? Sometimes I get a mild surprise, but in most cases I already expect an incredible range of crazy stuff to happen which can often negatively impact the fantasy prospects of my players. The players are people, and life happens. Reeling this in to get back to my point, people acquiring players with a 10-year forward looking plan are unrealistically thinking way too far ahead. Consider using a 2 to 3 year outlook for over 90% of players, and anything beyond that is an "unexpected" (wink) bonus. I can see looking a little further for a very restrictive group of players like Eli Manning or Larry Fitzgerald, but remember, anything can happen at anytime. Just ask Carson Palmer on his first career playoff pass last January.

4. Manage from a position of power. Something I've noticed in recent years is that it becomes decidedly easier to talk trade with other teams when you are winning, than when you are losing. Obviously, when winning, it means your roster is probably in decent shape, and likely better shape than when you're losing. This means you likely have more options with which to work with. You can take trades that help you more now and the future, rather than strictly the future. You can also accept trades that bring in quality vets at the trade deadline for the final playoff push, without too much concern this will hurt you long-term because your team is strong otherwise. Heck, if your team is doing well you are protected from the often irrational idea to, "shake things up", as you might if the team is performing poorly. And overall, you can just be more selective about the trades you accept, because other owners will have a tougher time selling you that their trade proposal improves your team, when you already have a full trophy case and sit atop the standings.

Okay, I'm sure I'm past my time to wrap things up. A little less on the entertainment and a little less commentary specific to the Ironman 3 league this time than was intended with this project, but hopefully this submission qualifies nicely on the helpful side of the ledger. Plus it should give a good basis to understand my thought patterns going forward as I do discuss the i3 league in more detail. Cheers.