Dynasty Draft Under The Microscope-Part I

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I like how dynasty drafts mimic the NFL in the way teams have to decide whether to draft according to talent or need. Yet, there's a third strategy--understanding the marketplace--which I'll discuss later. I gave up my first three picks this year in deals made last year, so my strategy was already decided for me. Although it may not look this way on the surface, I drafted according to talent and with a long view approach.

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Before I analyze my choices, one thing an owner discovers in leagues that allow draft day trades is which players of yours other teams value. Even more so, you see which players have ascending value based on their previous season's performance and others' perceptions that a breakout year is imminent. There were a few players of mine that had ascending value for several teams. I'll mention them ranked by the amount of inquiries different owners made to acquire them.

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LB Channing Crowder, Miami: I picked Crowder at 4.03 (4th round, 3rd pick) last year and he averaged 5 points per contest, good enough for 65th among his peers. Not overly impressive season totals, but he had 4-5 game stretch where he started and averaged enough points to project him in the top 35 linebackers over the course of a season. Since he came out of school early and there's a good chance he'll be the future MLB with a defensive-minded coach, his stock is on the rise. Crowder's stock dipped in last year's NFL draft due to his injury history, but based on talent alone, the former UF star was viewed as good (if not better) a prospect as Cincinnati's Odell Thurman. I received 6 inquiries involving Crowder. While I have a good enough LB rotation to part with Crowder, the offers were of the "Buy Low" variety where the owners attempted to give me players I would wind up cutting in return.

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WR Matt Jones, Jacksonville: My selection of Jones was considered a reach because he never played the position. Now that Jones has demonstrated in front of national audiences that he's adapting quickly and making plays with jaw-dropping athleticism, a few offers were made early.

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WR Samie Parker, Kansas City: This one is a head scratcher. I like Parker's talent, but Herm Edwards arrival and Al Saunders departure doesn't give me confidence that Parker suddenly becomes the next Santana Moss or Steve Smith. Parker was a throw-in player in a few proposals this month. Unfortunately the offers weren't too great on the main portion of the deal to pull the trigger.

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QB Byron Leftwich, Jacksonville: I received a couple of offers for Leftwich due to the potential of the offensive skill players, but I think others pursuit leveled off when Jimmy Smith called it quits.

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S Sean Jones, Cleveland: I receive two offers that potentially involved Jones, a safety that may not even earn the starting job in Cleveland. Talent-wise Jones was only second to the Redskins Sean Taylor, but his ACL tear as a rookie put him on a longer timeline. I'm guessing the presence of Crennell and Jones now two years removed from the injury has some yard sale junkies sniffing around for a deal.

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On the opposite end of the spectrum, the excitement has dimmed for LB Julian Peterson of the Seahawks. Peterson was one of the players owners most often included when proposing a deal, but the inquiries disappeared the moment the ascending star tore his Achilles in 2004. Peterson's return to the field resulted in an underwhelming total for a former pro bowl performer. The 49ers prompt trade to Seattle makes the situation appear as if they don't believe Peterson will ever regain his dominating athleticism. Odds aren't in Peterson's favor, but Seattle seemed willing to take the chance. I attempted to package Peterson in offers that owners would have pounced on two years ago, but now they wouldn't consider him. Personally, I think Peterson is in for a much better year and the offers will come back in 2007.

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The one deal I did make this month was with Mike. I picked up Bernard Berrian (once I knew he spelled it "Berriam," and read his comments in his entry, I figured he wasn't too attached) for my 12th pick in the 4th round. The Bears receiver was a player I really liked when he was at Fresno State where he helped make David Carr look like a future, 1st overall pick. In fact, Mike was picking one spot ahead of me in that rookie draft and nabbed Berrian at the end of the third round--just where I hoped to acquire him. Granted, Berrian is nothing special right now, but he's demonstrated a knack to get deep and I was impressed with his play versus the Panthers in the playoffs. I know Mark Bradley is the favorite receiver of the future, but the guy is recovering from an ACL tear. I think Berrian gets a nice opportunity in Chicago opposite Muhammad and for my squad, acquiring Berrian was like having a 3rd round pick.

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As you can see, I'm just as guilty of trying to "Buy Low." I attempted to get Kellen Winslow II, Michael Clayton, and Reggie Brown this way. It's always worth a shot that the owner(s) of these players lets his emotions get the best of him and sours on a player's prospects. I would have been ecstatic to acquire any of these three players relatively cheap. Mike asked me the other day why he never received any offers from me for Clayton when he had the Buc as a rookie. My response of course was Clayton's value was sky high and I didn't have anyone of commensurate value that I could afford to give in return! Mike by the way, traded Clayton for Reggie Wayne which turned out to be an extremely wise move.

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My Draft Style

For Ironman 3, I have learned there is no reason to draft certain positions. It's useless to pick a defensive back, defensive tackle, or in some cases a defensive end. The top players are frequently available in free agency and defensive scoring (as I mentioned before) is less predictable so the turnover in the top production spots is pretty high. Safeties Sammy Knight and Nick Ferguson weren't players I drafted, but they were the 4th and 20th overall fantasy producers at their position. I'd rather stockpile offensive talent or a potential tackling machine at linebacker that can give me additional bargaining power. This was something I had to learn the hard way, but until our league's rules change the way this works, I'm never going back to picking defensive players. The point potential for a great safety won't match that of a great offensive skill player.

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I also tend to reach a bit for players I like. Since I don't have the time, money, and resources to figure out what my competition will be targeting on a consistent basis (no excuses, Buffalo...I like Whitner and I came out in support of you for getting the guy you wanted, but the more I think about it, the less I can justify my argument). So I pick guys that might go a round or two later. I don't want to get cute with trading down and missing the only guy I thought was worth picking. Admittedly, I have reached more than a couple of rounds for some players. In fact, I've had some embarrassing reaches for undrafted free agents that made a team...well, at least for a little while. I'm learning to temper my enthusiasm on late-round or undrafted players.