So while I wait for Mike's counter offer to hopefully end what looks like a bleak situation at tight end, I'm about a week away from making cuts. This is probably my least favorite time in dynasty leagues. I'm a packrat by nature. In fact, I never read C.S. Lewis' work The Lion, The Witch, And The Wardrobe, but once I saw Narnia the concept didn't surprise me. It's arguable I was able to travel back into the 1940's through the time portal known as my grandmother's closet. Who knew that a seventh floor apartment in Cleveland, Ohio housed the planes that went missing in the Bermuda Triangle?

This packrat gene naturally got passed down to my mother, a woman that has so much clothing stashed away, I'm sure the only reasonable explanation is she kidnapped a dressmaker and is holding her captive as forced labor until she produces enough wardrobe to fill a New York and Company. I'm not sure I fully inherited this trait, but it does show up prominently whenever my dynasty teams relax the roster limits. I just can't pass up on an inexpensive shot at potential. The problem is deciding who to cut loose. I've already rid myself of a number of players that I wish I kept (WR Ernest Wilford and S Glenn Earl among them).

Here are my current candidates that face my first waive of cuts--I'll need to drop between 5-9 players depending on those I stash on my taxi squad. So let's rummage through my junk drawer and sort the potential treasure from the trinkets:

QB Stefan Lefors, Carolina
QB Adrian McPherson, New Orleans
RB Andre Hall, Tampa Bay
RB Jarrett Payton, Tennessee
RB Quentin Griffin, Kansas City
WR Quincy Morgan, Pittsburgh
TE Garrett Mills, New England
TE Billy Miller, New Orleans
TE Wesley Duke, Free Agent
TE Adam Bergen, Cardinals

I do have some easier choices--specifically, Wesley Duke, the tight end I pegged as a darkhorse candidate to start in Denver that promptly got cut upon his triumphant return from NFL Europe. What a waste of $7 in free agent bidding. These are the pitfalls of attempting to build a team rather than maintaining a winner. Quincy Morgan is at best, the #3 WR for the Steelers and I doubt he'll be a much sought after player at this point of the preseason. Andre Hall and Jarrett Payton are most likely practice squad players on their respective teams, but RBs with talent hold more potential value on the depth chart due to the injury factor. I'll hold onto them this summer for as long as they are still on an NFL team. I think both players possess enough talent to at least produce in small stretches and my RB roster lacks starters.

While I've been writing this blog entry, I updated my offer to Mike:

Bobby Engram, Ian Gold, and now, my 2007 2nd round pick for Watson, a 3rd round pick or a 4th and rookie RB Wali Lundy.

To me this is a no-brainer for him to take. But I received a counter offer of McMichael for what I just offered for Watson.

The dilemma for me is what I think Watson's worth is compared to McMichael. Strictly on production, McMichael has been worth more than Watson. He's the generally the 8th-10th ranked tight end in this league. Not bad for a guy without a star quarterback. McMichael has also played in all 48 games from 2002-2005--another plus for the first of the slew of Georgia tight ends to go pro. McMichael catching passes from Culpepper seems like a nice possibility.

The downside? He was in trouble with the law for beating his wife. Personally reprehensible, and potentially one step away from suspension or major prison time in his professional life. Does McMichael have a higher ceiling of potential than the 8th-10th best fantasy tight end in this league? I'm not sure. Culpepper and Jermaine Wiggins hooked up enough to make Wiggins an option that rated just behind McMichael in 2004. Does that mean Culpepper will boost McMichael's stats even higher?

Ben Watson is all potential. He was the 18th ranked TE last year, but he split time with Daniel Graham and Christian Fauria. One is the subject of trade rumors and the other is in Washington. Training camp reports indicate Watson is getting looks as if he'll be one of the primary options, if not the primary option in the passing game. Watson is the more athletic of the two tight ends. Honestly, I think it's easy to be enamored with the guy's potential. Especially when you see him do things like run down Champ Bailey from across the field in a playoff game.

The downside with Watson? A torn ACL as a rookie and Belicheck's system. Daniel Graham is still there. Mike Vrabel is still catching TD passes. Plus, the Pats drafted Dave Thomas and Garrett Mills--two good prospects at the position! But it's clear both Mike and I feel Watson has far more potential than McMichael.

This is why Mike wouldn't take a 3rd round pick for Watson. He and I both believe Watson has the skills to be the next elite TE and he wants a big payday in return for giving him up.
But at this point a 3rd round pick is more than fair when you combine that with a starting quality LB like Gold and a Engram--a WR that provides excellent depth because he'll produce very well if he has to sub for either Jackson or Burleson.

But when I offer him a 2nd round pick, he doesn't budge on Watson. Instead he offers me McMichael. We'll it's already clear he not only dislikes McMichael, but has him ranked 3rd on his depth chart. This means he'd never use McMichael and value Watson higher than him.

So Mike, I'll consider McMichael, but giving you a second round pick is costly for a guy neither of us value as highly as Watson. Even if I admit my team is on the rise, that likely means I'll have the 7th-9th pick while you still have the 13th or 14th pick. In essence, if I give you a 2nd round pick, your 4th round pick is closer to a 5th round pick in value.

My other need is defensive end. Mike, you are loaded at the position. Freeney, Justin Smith, Ellis, and Bertrand Berry make a nice quartet. Berry missed half the year with a torn pec and his career span is likely limited in comparison to the other three you already have on your roster.

I'll give you Gold, Ingram, my 3rd round and 6th round picks for McMichael, Lundy, Berry, and your 4th round pick.